Comparing Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Assessments. A case study at a closed steel mill in southern Sweden (7 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope   Contaminated land is a high priority environmental problem in most of Europe and North-America. Sweden is no exception and generic guideline values have been developed for the initial assessment, but site-specific assessments are also needed. The generic guideline values are not applicable when the exposure conditions are different from the typical Swedish conditions or when the site contains a particularly sensitive ecosystem. The Swedish guideline values have, like in many other countries, been set by using deterministic point estimates for all variables and constants in the used multimedia model. The same approach is common also for site-specific assessments, and a limitation is that it fails to quantify variability and uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment provided a method to deal with this problem. Variability and uncertainty in the input parameters (variables or constants) are described by probability distributions, and likewise the output (risk or exposure) is presented as a probability distribution. A substantial number of probabilistic risk assessments for contaminated land at sites in North America, Europe and Asia have been published. However, an extensive review of the literature did not identify any study where probabilistic risk assessment was applied to a site contaminated by an iron or steel industry. Here we will describe such a case, where we have compared a deterministic point estimate with a probabilistic risk assessment for six elements and benzo[a]pyrene. Methods   The site had different metallurgical plants in operation for more than 100 years. Most parts of the steel mill were closed by the mid 1980s, and today the site is used by small-sized enterprises. The soil is contaminated with metals from the previous industrial operations. The present owner plans to develop the site and has therefore initiated extensive investigations of soil contamination. Sixty-two soil samples collected between 1997 and 2000 provided a good coverage of the whole site, and were analyzed for the content of different elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The exposure assessments were focused on six elements with high concentrations compared to the generic guideline values; arsenic (As), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). In addition, benzo[a]pyrene was included due to the high toxicity and comparatively high concentrations. Variability and uncertainty were characterized in a Monte Carlo simulation of exposures (10 000 iterations), and the exposures were evaluated with two land use scenarios; less sensitive use and sensitive use. Results and Discussion   The deterministic point estimates and the probabilistic estimates of the 95th percentile are in approximately the same ranges in the scenario of less sensitive land use. It is only the exposure for arsenic that is slightly above the toxicological reference value (TRV) in the deterministic assessment. In the probabilistic assessment, the exposure for all elements is below the TRV. The results for sensitive land use are applicable to a scenario where the site is developed for general housing. The deterministic point estimates and the probabilistic estimates of the 95th percentile are also here in approximately the same ranges, but the exposure exceeds the TRV for arsenic, cadmium and lead. Drinking water, vegetables grown on site and soil ingestion are the major exposure pathways for this scenario. In this assessment, the estimated intake distributions are applicable to a randomly selected individual. The probability distributions used here to characterize the different soil parameters are typically representing both variability and uncertainty, and the same is true the majority of the exposure variables. We therefore decided not to attempt to separate variability and uncertainty at this stage, but with additional data from a more in-depth site investigation it might be possible to achieve this. Conclusions and Outlook   To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first report on a probabilistic risk assessment on a former iron and steel works site. The materials handled by this industry were less toxic than for many other metallurgical operations, but contaminants may still severely limit the options for future land use. This case study shows that probabilistic exposure estimates for a set of soil contaminants can be quite similar to deterministic point estimates. The main difference is instead to be found in the additional information obtained with the probabilistic assessment. The sensitivity analyses show pathways and input variables that contribute most to variations in the total intake of each contaminant, e.g. dermal contact and ingestion of soil, vegetables and drinking water. This information can be used both in the planning of future land use and for active measures to reduce current exposure. The probabilistic assessment also provides information on the magnitude of exposure and the margin of safety. This information may facilitate risk communication between decision-makers and stakeholders. The presentation of results from probabilistic risk assessments is only briefly discussed in the literature and here we see a need for research and opportunities for enhancement. The choice of data analytical tools may then be of importance, since more complex multimedia models are rather difficult to decipher when implemented within traditional spreadsheet software. Some of the research needs are identified here and in a previous review article in this journal.     

The mineralogy and potassium supplying power of some loessial and related soils of New Zealand

Sixteen Pallic (Aqualfs, Ustalfs, Aquepts, Ochrepts) and related soils collected from the North and South Islands of New Zealand were studied to determine if variations in nonexchangeable K supply could be explained by mineralogical composition. A strong relationship was found which indicates that mica is weathering to vermiculite. Proportions of vermiculite and kandite are generally higher in the North Island than in the South Island. Dominance of either micas or vermiculite or kandite is determined by the stage of weathering and/or the nature of parent materials. Soils that supplied more nonexchangeable K (K_nex) to ryegrass plants contained more mica in the clay fraction than soils that supplied less K_nex. The results confirmed that use of a soil test that includes a measure of K_nex (i.e. acid-extractable K) may be a vital part of identifying variations in plant available K status of the soils. It is concluded that the K supplying power of the Pallic and related soils is related directly to the amounts of mica present in clay fraction and that good K supplying soils will be transformed to K depleted soils as a result of increased weathering and leaching (pedogenic factors) and K exploitation in intensive farming systems.     

Changes in soil microbial biomass and aggregate stability following burning and soil rehabilitation

A greenhouse experiment was conducted in order to determine the influence of organic amendment, as compared with inorganic fertilization, and vegetation cover (Lolium perennne L.) on microbial biomass and aggregate stability in burnt soils. The study was performed with soil samples from the ash layer of three pine forests differing in their physicochemical and chemical properties and affected by high-intensity wildfires about 3 and 36 months before the sampling. Two different doses of both poultry manure and NPK fertilizer were used. Similar results were observed independent of the soil; however, the fertilization effect was most pronounced in the soil collected 36 months after the wildfire. Significant increases in microbial biomass C were detected following poultry manure addition, particularly at high dose, while no changes or slight increases were found as a consequence of inorganic fertilization. A significant but varied response of microorganisms to plant growing was also observed. Revegetation and fertilization also modified the aggregate stability values, but different effects were detected depending on the fertilizer used (organic or inorganic) and the dose of application. A high positive and significant relationship between soil microbial biomass and aggregate stability was observed. The results clearly indicate that organic amendment combined with the implantation of a vegetation cover can improve the reestablishment of both microbial biomass and soil structure in burnt pine forests.     

Dry farming with soils under natural tephra cover in Lanzarote, Spain

Abstract. The volcanic island of Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain) is one of the most arid parts of the European Union. During the eruptions of 1730–36, a third of the island was covered with lava and pyroclastic material. In areas under basaltic tephra, an agrosystem has been developed that allows a form of dry farming that has become a key component of the local economy. This article illustrates the effectiveness of the layer of natural tephra mulch in conserving soil and water.     

Soil microbial community characteristics along an elevation gradient in the Laguna Mountains of Southern California

We sampled soil at four sites in the Laguna Mountains in the western Sonoran Desert to test the effects of site and sample location (between or beneath plants) on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) and carbon substrate ulilization (Biolog) profiles. The four sites differed in elevation, soil type, plant community composition, and plant percent cover. Soil pH decreased and plant density increased with elevation. Fertile islands, defined as areas beneath plants with greater soil resources than bare areas, are present at all sites, but are most pronounced at lower elevations. Consistent with this pattern, fertile islands had the greatest influence on FAME and Biolog profiles at lower elevations. Based on the use of FAME biomarker and principal components analyses, we found that soil microbial communities between plants at the lowest elevation had proportionally more Gram-negative bacteria than all other soils. At the higher elevation sites there were few differences in FAME profiles of soils sampled between vs. beneath plants. Differences in FAME profiles under plants among the four sites were small, suggesting that the plant influence per se is more important than plant type in controlling FAME profiles. Since microbial biomass carbon was correlated with FAME number (r=0.85,P<0.0001) and with FAME named (r=0.88,P<0.0001) and total areas (r=0.84,P<0.0001), we standardized the FAME data to ensure that differences in FAME profiles among samples were not the result of differences in microbial biomass. Differences in microbial substrate utilization profiles among sampling locations were greatest between samples taken under vs. between plants at the two lower elevation sites. Microbial substrate utilization profiles, therefore, also seem to be influenced more by the presence of plants than by specific plant type.     

Impact of land use changes on the hydrological properties of volcanic ash soils in South Ecuador

Abstract. The effect of land use on the water retention capacity of Umbric Andosols in south Ecuador was studied. The objective was to acquire a better insight into the hydrological processes of the ecosystem and the role of the soil, in order to assess the impact of changing soil properties due to land use change on the hydrology of the high Andes region. Field data on the water retention capacity at wilting point of Umbric Andosols were collected for both cultivated field conditions and original bush vegetation. The pH in water and in NaF, texture, organic matter content and dry bulk density were measured to show which physicochemical soil characteristics are responsible for the water retention of the Umbric Andosols and for the irreversible loss in water retention due to air drying. Organic matter content appears to be very important and certainly more important than allophane clay content. Water retention of the organic litter layer was calculated to be 16 mm, this would be lost when vegetation was cleared and the land cultivated.     

Nitrate leaching losses and their control in a mixed farm system in the Cotswold Hills, England

Abstract. Nitrate leaching was measured for four years at the Royal Agricultural College 's Coates Farm in the Cotswolds, England. Coates is a typical Cotswold mixed farm with thin, well-drained calcareous soils especially prone to leaching. Over the duration of this study there were dairy, sheep and arable enterprises on the farm. A 'Farm Gate' nitrogen (N) budget was constructed. Small 120 m × 20 m 'farmlets' were sited in ten fields across the farm, covering all parts of the rotation, as the sites for detailed measurements. Each farmlet received the same management as the rest of the field in which they were situated. Using ceramic probes inserted to 60 cm, soil water was sampled every two weeks throughout the winter drainage season. The annual drainage varied from 135 mm under grassland in 1996/7 to 600 mm under cereals in 1998/9. Average N losses by leaching were determined mostly by rainfall and were 65 kg N ha^–1 yr^–1, accounting for 25% of the N inputs. Especially leaky parts of the rotation were the ploughing out of a lucerne ley and the grazing of stubble turnips with sheep, both typical Cotswold farm practices. The research highlights some of the difficulties in developing practicable, profitable management practices to decrease nitrate losses.     

黄土高原干旱半干旱区生物结皮覆盖土壤水汽吸附与凝结特征

生物结皮是一种广泛分布于干旱半干旱地区土壤表层的特殊复合体,为揭示其对土壤水汽吸附与凝结过程的影响,该研究通过室内定量水汽吸附试验和野外对水汽凝结的连续观测,对黄土高原典型生物结皮(藻结皮、藻藓混生结皮、藓结皮)与裸沙的水汽吸附和凝结特征进行对比研究。结果表明:生物结皮的覆盖显著提升了表层土壤的水汽吸附能力,其平均水汽吸附量比裸沙高66.7%。不同类型生物结皮水汽吸附能力差异显著,表现为藓结皮最高,混生结皮次之,而藻结皮最低。GAB(Guggenheim-Anderson-de Boer)吸附模型能较好的描述生物结皮土壤水汽吸附与解吸附过程,模拟结果决定系数R20.99、均方根误差RMSE0.001 2 g/g及平均相对偏差百分比E16.0%;此外,生物结皮加剧了土壤水汽吸附与解吸附曲线之间的滞后效应,其滞后指数平均是裸沙的2.0～2.9倍。水汽凝结结果显示,水汽凝结过程均受气温与相对湿度等气象因子制约,且生物结皮覆盖下表层土壤的水汽凝结和蒸发过程相较于裸沙更为迅速。同时,生物结皮的日均水汽凝结量是裸沙的1.6～1.8倍。综上,干旱和半干旱地区生物结皮覆盖显著提高了表层土壤的水汽吸附能力、并增加了水汽凝结量,对区域表层土壤的水分运动过程产生了重要影响。